Who will win promotion from League One this season?

The games played by sides in the third tier differ considerably at the moment (Bolton Wanders, Port Vale and Cheltenham Town have all played 25 matches, while leaders Portsmouth, plus Blackpool, Lincoln City, Burton Albion, Shrewsbury Town and Carlisle United have all got 28 games under their belt).

That leaves the remaining 15 sides on either 26 or 27 matches played.

It’s a real mishmash, but the table pretty much reflects where you would expect most teams to be at this stage of the campaign.

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Currently sitting in the two automatic promotion places are the aforementioned Pompey, and second-placed Peterborough United.

Portsmouth are suffering something of a blip, having lost three of their last six league games, with their incredible start to the season now acting as a buffer to the chasing pack.

Former Oxford United skipper John Mousinho has been in the post at Fratton Park for just over a year, having taken over on January 20, in his first head coach role.

The 37-year-old has made Pompey a tough team to beat, and their start to the campaign was helped by a new club record for unbeaten league games (27), with the run stretching into last season too.

Portsmouth boss John Mousinho (Image: Martin Rickett/ PA Wire)

A point behind Portsmouth is the Posh. Of the top eight sides that Oxford United have faced this season, it is Darren Ferguson’s team who have stood out the most.

They haven’t lost in the league since November 7, and the attacking talent they possess is frightening at this level.

Centre forward Ricky-Jade Jones, with a brilliant supporting cast of Ephron Mason-Clark, Kwame Poku and Joel Randall, were too smart, and too quick, when United were beaten 3-0 at London Road last month.

That quartet has scored 29 league goals for the Posh so far this campaign, while in Ferguson, Peterborough boast a boss with three League One promotions at the club already on his CV.

Peterborough United boss Darren Ferguson (Image: Rhianna Chadwick/ PA Wire)

Four points then separate Derby County in third, and Des Buckingham’s United in sixth.

The Rams have all the tools for promotion – an experienced squad, plenty of quality, and a sprinkling of youthful exuberance. Plus in Paul Warne, a head coach who knows how to get promotion from the third tier.

Warne got Rotherham United into the Championship on three occasions (2018, 2020 and 2022) before heading to Pride Park.

Bolton Wanderers sit in fourth, and until their 1-0 defeat away to Leyton Orient yesterday, had embarked on a five-game winning streak.

Ian Evatt is a young manager well-respected within the game, having won the Vanarama National League with Barrow, plus promotion from League Two, and the EFL Trophy, with Bolton.

Not many would bet against further success on his CV this season.

Oxford United remain sixth in League One, while a former #oufc striker netted the winner against one of their promotion rivalshttps://t.co/EHREGAJH9e

— Oxford Mail OUFC (@OxfordMailOUFC) January 21, 2024

Fifth-placed Barnsley boast the league’s equal top scorer in 16-goal Devante Cole (son of Andy).

The Tykes were beaten in last season’s play-off final, losing 1-0 to Sheffield Wednesday in the cruellest of fashions.

After Adam Phillips’ sending off with 49 minutes on the clock, Barnsley held out until the 123rd minute, when Josh Windass headed in a dramatic late winner.

This season, midfield trio Phillips, Luca Connell and Herbie Kane remain instrumental, as is Callum Styles, who spent the majority of last season on loan at Championship side Millwall.

We’ll skip the U’s for now and move on to the two likeliest teams to finish in the top six from the chasing pack.

Stevenage are three points behind United, but that in itself is impressive.

The Hertfordshire outfit only achieved promotion to League One last season, and are perhaps a little more direct and aggressive than the other sides looking for promotion.

That’s not a stain though at all. Stevenage make it a tough 90 minutes for their opponents, and crucially, their style is getting them results.

Some will have expected them to fade away by now, but under the guidance of Steve Evans, they are always going to be a difficult customer.

The goalscoring form of Jamie Reid, with 15 so far for the season, could be the difference for them.

Blackpool are a point behind, in eighth, and look like the last of the serious contenders for promotion.

Spearheaded by the goals of the wily Jordan Rhodes (15 since joining on loan from Huddersfield Town) and the best home record in the league so far, if Neil Critchley’s side can starting getting more points on the road, then the play-offs will certainly be achievable.

Blackpool striker Jordan Rhodes celebrates earlier this season (Image: Tim Markland/ PA Wire)

Seven points behind the Seasiders are Orient, with Northampton Town a further point behind.

It seems harsh to rule those two out, especially given their recent form, but the gap to the top six might just be too much for two sides already having remarkable campaigns after promotion last season.

So to return to the U’s then. The transition of head coach in November led to a wobbly start for Buckingham, but that now appears to be a thing of the past, and as key players return from injury, United should only get better.

A solid transfer window so far, with the signings of goalkeeper Jamie Cumming, wingers Tyler Burey and Kyle Edwards, plus new centre forward Will Goodwin, puts the U’s in a promising place for their final 20 games of the campaign.

The nucleus of the squad, in players such as Ciaron Brown, Elliott Moore, Cameron Brannagan and Marcus McGuane, remain key to the side.

Added to that the likes of Greg Leigh, Ruben Rodrigues, Tyler Goodrham and Mark Harris, and United have got a strong handful of players who not many League One sides would be able to turn down.

The games played by teams in League One need balancing out with rearranged clashes, but once again, the race for promotion in the third tier is shaping up to be yet another cracker.